DATOC

DATOC framed some possible approaches to this work in early March, 2019. At that time, we assembled a smaller break-out team to work on it in more detail. The break-out team met in late March and hashed out some next steps.

​

In early May, the team met again to discuss progress to-date, and we decided to pursue moving forward using 2 modeling interfaces to address the questions posed: the Cambridge Modeling Interface (CMI) and the Agent-Based Model (ABM) from a USDA team in Ft. Pierce, FL. 

​

 

In July, discussions began with the CMI team regarding funding to run the model in CA. At the end of May we met for a walk-through of the CMI, and a walk-through of the ABM followed in June.

​

​

​

 

In September 2019, we decided on a plan to move forward using the ABM: we decided to create a potential counter-factual in San Gabriel, comparing model output of a few management scenarios with what was known about disease prevalence in the city. Specifically, we decided to use the model to simulate tree removal and insecticide applications.

​

By November, preliminary runs under this framework were complete.

​

 

 

 

 

Work using the ABM continued in close collaboration with the model development team.

​

​

Replicated simulations with the ABM were finalized and presented to the CPDPP Joint Science & Operations subcommittee meeting on May 6, 2020. Results indicated that tree removal alone is unlikely to significantly limit disease spread compared to implementing no control, but that vector suppression was a vital aspect of disease control, and may interact synergistically with tree removal over time.

​

A proposal to fund work with the CMI is submitted and approved under the Plant Protection Act.